Seasonal Outlook October 2026 to March 2027

The period from October to March constitutes the main rainfall season in Seychelles, coinciding with the transition into and establishment of the Northwest Monsoon, which typically becomes established by mid to late November.This bulletin therefore presents overlapping seasonal outlooks for rainfall and temperature covering October 2026 to March 2027, together with the associated climate drivers. The outlooks are based on the combined initial conditions of August and September 2026.

The overall rainfall outlook indicates a high likelihood of above-normal rainfall conditions across Mahe, Praslin, and La Digue during October-December (OND) 2026 and November 2026-January 2027 (NDJ). During the peak rainfall season, December 2026-February 2027 (DJF), and the subsequent January-March 2027 (JFM) season, rainfall is forecast to have a high likelihood of being near normal to above normal across the islands.

For temperature, the outlook for the October 2026-March 2027 rainfall season indicates a high likelihood of above-normal mean temperatures across Mahe and the Inner Islands.