Seasonal Forecast June-July-August 2026 (JJA-2026)

The June-July-August (JJA) season represents the peak of the dry season in Seychelles. During this period, the atmospheric circulation over the Indian Ocean typically shifts into its winter pattern. The Seychelles archipelago is predominantly influenced by southeasterly trade winds originating from the southern Indian Ocean subtropical high-pressure system, which advect relatively cool and dry air masses toward the region. Consequently, Seychelles generally experiences cooler temperatures, lower humidity, and reduced rainfall during this season. Further, this season is associated with the northward expansion of the Southern Hemisphere subtropical high-pressure belt and the northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). As the ITCZ moves away from Seychelles, the frequency of deep tropical convection decreases, contributing to generally drier and more stable atmospheric conditions over the islands.

The June-July-August (JJA) 2026 rainfall season outlook generally indicates near-normal rainfall with an increased tendency to above-normal conditions over the Northern Zone of Mahe. In contrast, the Central and Southern Zones of Mahe, as well as Praslin and La Digue, are expected to experience near-normal to below-normal rainfall conditions during the season.

For June 2026, rainfall is forecast to be near normal with an increased probability of below-normal rainfall over the Northern and Central Zones of Mahe, Praslin, and La Digue.

Meanwhile, the Southern Zone of Mahe is expected to experience below-normal rainfall conditions.