SMA continues monitoring El Niño conditions affecting Seychelles
Victoria, Seychelles — 7 July 2026 — The Seychelles Meteorological Authority (SMA) is advising the public, key sectors and visitors to remain informed and prepared as weather conditions associated with El Niño continue to be monitored.
SMA Chief Executive Officer Mr Vincent Amelie explained that El Niño is a climate phenomenon that develops over the Pacific Ocean, where ocean temperatures become warmer than usual, but its effects can influence weather patterns in other parts of the world, including the Indian Ocean region. Although Seychelles is not where El Niño forms, its impacts can still be felt locally through changes in rainfall, temperature, sea conditions and seasonal weather patterns.
Speaking in a recent interview, Mr Amelie said SMA’s outlook for the coming months indicates that July is expected to continue receiving little to moderate rainfall, while rainfall could begin increasing from August into September. Mr Amelie explained that the expected increase in rainfall does not necessarily mean continuous rain every day. Rainfall linked to El Niño can occur in different forms, including one or two heavy rainfall events, or periods of light passing showers that, together, result in rainfall totals above normal levels.
“El Niño actually is associated with more rain in Seychelles,” he said, adding that the absence of significant rainfall at present does not mean the phenomenon is not active. According to Mr Amelie, El Niño is continuing to strengthen and is expected to become more active during the upcoming rainy season. He noted that a single intense rainfall event can be enough to raise the monthly or seasonal average, even if rainfall is not experienced every day.
SMA indicates that the possible impacts of El Niño on Seychelles may vary depending on the time of year and its interaction with other weather systems affecting the region. These impacts may include changes in rainfall distribution, periods of heavy rainfall, drier conditions at certain times, warmer temperatures, and possible effects on water resources, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, health and disaster risk management.
Mr Amelie also highlighted the role of climate change, noting that it can make climate-related phenomena more intense and more active. He recalled recent years, including 2023, have shown a tendency for such events to become more severe and to have greater influence on climate conditions.
SMA stressed that El Niño does not mean extreme weather will occur every day, nor does it mean the same impacts will be experienced everywhere across the country. However, the Authority said it increases the need for close monitoring, timely information and early preparedness.
Mr Amelie also said SMA is working on the development of a fire weather index to better assess periods when meteorological conditions may favour the ignition and spread of fires. The index would be based on key atmospheric parameters, including wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity.
From a meteorological perspective, these parameters are important because high temperatures can dry vegetation and surface materials, low relative humidity can reduce moisture content in potential fuels, and stronger winds can accelerate the spread of flames once a fire starts. By combining these variables, the fire weather index would help identify periods when weather conditions are more favourable for fire propagation, as well as periods when the risk linked to weather conditions is lower.
SMA said such an index would support early warning, preparedness and decision-making by helping authorities, land managers and the public better understand when weather conditions may contribute to increased fire danger.
Members of the public are encouraged to follow official weather forecasts, warnings and climate updates issued by SMA. Residents, businesses, organisations and tourists are also encouraged to take practical steps to reduce risks, especially during periods of heavy rain, strong winds, rough seas or extended dry weather.
The public is advised to monitor SMA forecasts and alerts, keep drains and gutters clear where safe to do so, avoid flood-prone areas during heavy rainfall, follow marine forecasts before going to sea and use water responsibly during dry periods.
SMA said it continues to work with national, regional and international partners to monitor the evolution of El Niño and its possible impacts on Seychelles. The Authority will continue to provide timely forecasts, warnings and climate information to support public safety, national planning and sectoral preparedness.
SMA reminded the public that preparedness is a shared responsibility, adding that by staying informed and acting early, communities can reduce the risks associated with changing weather and climate conditions.